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Current time:0:00Total duration:15:58

Video transcript

I've been asked to make predictions for the Year 2060 or 50 years in the future and I thought I would focus this video on things that I feel pretty good about or things that I feel are close to to to my heart and hopefully things that things like the Khan Academy might be able to bring about so the first big change I expect in the next 50 years and actually don't think it'll take 50 years for it to happen it'll probably happen fairly quickly over the next ten years is that the classroom model fundamentally changes so classroom different and it's going to change from a model like this and not all classrooms look like this there are already classrooms that are exploring different types of ways for students to interact with each other and with the professor but still in most classrooms of the world especially if you take the introductory courses at most universities you'll see something like this you'll see a professor lecturing in some way and a bunch of students sitting in rows taking notes and then they'll take an exam at the end of the term in probably frankly 10 years this is going to go away completely go away you won't have people passively sitting in lecture halls taking notes so we're going to move from a passive model passive taking lectures completely and this is already happening to a certain degree completely to an active active I would call it discovery discovery and creative model so the classroom of the future will look something much more like this in fact you might not even call it a classroom you would call it in a room or some type of project room or something like that and the general idea is right now all of these resources are spent for people to passively get get information from a professor when that is necessary and there will be times where you want to learn a little bit of what someone else discovered about calculus or quantum physics or anything like that that would be at your own time at your own pace and we can pretend like that's happening to this gentleman right over there and maybe he's even able to practice some of those core skills but a bulk of the time will be spent doing this will be doing building things creating things exploring things and it doesn't just have to be science and technology these people look like they're building some type of a robot it could be it could be of painting a picture or composing a sonata or or choreographing a dance whatever it might be is going to be much more active discovery-based and creative and actually what I think this is going to happen technologically because a lot of the stuff that's happening in this in this fad and this model right over here can happen can can can start to happen a little bit more efficiently through this model so it frees up time for this but it's also going to be a social imperative that it happens if you rewind a few hundred years and actually you don't even have to rewind that far the bulk of society the bulk of society was kind of involved in I'll call it physical labor physical physical labor you had a smaller fraction that was involved in mental labor so I'll call this mental labor sometimes white-collar jobs mental labor something like filling out your taxes that is mental labor and you had a very small percentage of society so this is kind of historically and I'm even overstating what it is a very small percentage of society spent in kind of innovation creativity art things like that so art art innovation true science true pushing the frontiers of the human experience and human understanding forward now as you get more and more technology technology especially with the Industrial Revolution started to automate a lot of this and it also created the pie bigger and so when you have a kind of an industrial society what happened is is the necessity for physical labor went down so you had a smaller percentage of the population that needed to do physical labor the mental labor actually grew so more people can now be involved in things like mental labor and obviously even automation is is handling some of that as well but you've freed up more people to do mental labor and you've definitely freed up a good bit more of resources and people that can now do the the frontier pushing the envelope the art the innovation the creativity now if we fast-forward to the Year 2060 I think this is going to become an extreme form we're almost know physical labor is necessarily required people might like to do it for exercise so this part right over here is going to be very very very small especially in developed countries and hopefully by 2060 most countries will be developed even the mental labor is going to be taken over more and more by automation so a lot of this is going to be automated so you're going to need less people doing traditional mental labor tasks filling out paperwork filling out your taxes things like that and it's going to free up a lot of wealth and a lot of resources and a lot of people's hours to do truly artful creative innovative things and so the bulk of society I think by 2060 if things go well will be over here will be in this kind of creative class this is where most people will sit so it's actually an imperative that our classrooms one the tools are happening to make it possible to make it feasible but not only that but it's an imperative if society really is moving in this direction and I think it is so that we have as many people as possible that can do this research and development that can do truly creative activity now corollary to this idea that the classroom will be different that people will be working self-paced they'll be spending a lot more time working on projects is that instead of our credentials being for the most part seat time based so right now our credentials and it's not a hundred percent seat time but to a large degree most people use you spend twelve or actually 13 years in K through 12 so that's 13 years and then if you get a college degree it's expected it's going to be another four years four years and there are some people who are able to tweak this kippah grade here or there but for the most part the bulk of people do 13 years and then four years and then what the variable is is how well you actually achieved how well you actually understood your the material so the variable so this thing is relatively fixed this thing is fixed and then the variable is your level of achievement is your level of achievement achievement forgot any achievement and this right over here is variable so some people go through this system with straight A's they've really understood everything or hopefully they've understood everything if they got four straight days some people have B some people get C's and that's why we have something called a grade point average it shows that variation in an achievement even though everyone is kind of in this fixed seat time what we're going to transition to especially once everyone is learning at their own pace they don't have to kind of move together lockstep in these classrooms is you're going to go to an achievement based it's going to be an achievement based model where there are achievements that you are trying to get to and they can be multiple things part of the achievements could be skills like maybe calculus or or being able to read music read music or being able to I don't know understand quantum physics these would all be achievements but you decide how you will learn to master these core concepts so it won't be based on you have to spend 13 years and then four years going into debt to do it you could go to a formal institution to learn some of the stuff or you can learn it however you see fit you might be able to be an apprentice with someone and then eventually and then eventually show that you know quantum physics very well and I could imagine these achievements would be far more rigorous than the assessments that are being given right now they could be oral examinations they could be practical examinations they could be contingent upon you building or applying some of this information but what's interesting about this is now the seat time the time is variable so now let me write this the time is now the variable you can do this whenever wherever however long it takes you could even revisit things when you're 40 or 50 there won't be any artificial stopping point that you are 22 your college grad now you will not learn new things anymore and what's fixed and I won't call it fix because you can always get more and more achievements but the achievements will be at a high standard it's a fixed high standard so that if you get this reading music achievement you really do know how to read music which is different than some of an achievements if I get a C in a calculus class it's not clear that I actually do understand calculus in fact it's not even true necessarily true if I got an A in a calculus class whether I definitely understand calculus so fixed high fixed high standards and I imagine that the only credentials won't just be these kind of subject based credentials the most important part because remember the emphasis here is on the creative on the projects and in creative fields your real transcript is not your GPA your real transcript is your portfolio of projects portfolio of work that you've done so people will get things like this to show that they've that they understand specific domains but the most important part of the transcript of the future will be people's achievements or I used to say their projects so you know maybe I made a robot that can maybe make make toast of some kind maybe I've maybe I've painted a picture so here's a picture maybe I've written a piece of software that does something interesting so some software so what employers and other people will really care about isn't just your GPA or how much time you spent in a lecture hall they'll say show me the stuff that you have actually built that you've actually that shows that you are that you are really in this creative class that you could start from scratch and create something new and novel and I also imagine because we'll be getting so much data while people are actually working on working on getting some of their core skills that you won't just even have these do you know calculus you know quantum physics you'll also have metrics how hard-working were you how personal how well did you persevere especially maybe when you failed first these would be I think considered to be good things and on top of that you could start to measure how how well did you help others so that could be another achievement helping helping others when you virtually tutor people or physically tutor people they rate you and they say wow that person really did help me and we can even look at the data to see whether you had a statistically significant impact on their results now the next corollary with this different classroom and this achievement based learning is I think the role of the teacher will change dramatically and I think it'll be in a very powerful way so the role of the teacher rather than being a lecturer rather than being a lecturer and often giving similar lectures from year to year and always going at the same pace the teacher will now be a coach or a mentor and anyone who's ever seen a great football or basketball coach will tell you that a great coach or mentor is a very rich a very rich and important role and so I think that the role of the teacher will go up will go up dramatically and it actually won't even be an isolated profession anymore right now in a tea in a traditional classroom because it's lecture based you have a classroom of 20 25 30 students another classroom of 20 25 30 students another classroom of 20 25 30 students and in each of them you'll have a teacher in each of them you have a teacher often at the front of the classroom running class lecturing in some way because every student is now working at their own pace at their own time and the teachers are now spending most of their time interacting with students I could imagine a world where why have these walls between classrooms why not just have one larger classroom now it's 70 75 90 students and all three teachers all three teachers work together and so it becomes the teachers aren't isolated in their rooms they're all able to tag-team and play to each other strengths and the students will have the benefit instead of having the benefit of one one I guess experience based on knowledge set the students have the experience base of all of these teachers and not only that they'll also be tutoring each other so in this model in this model it's all going from the teacher to the student from the teacher students here is going from teachers to multiple students teachers from multiple students and from students to students and maybe even students to teachers so it's going from its it's going from peer to peer and multiple test do teachers to multiple peers and I think in this type of a model because the teacher is going to become that much more valuable because now it is all interactive there is no more passive lecture there is no giving the same lecture every year I think that the the the profession of teaching will become even more prestigious so my big and I'm saying 2060 but I think this is going to happen over the next 10 to 15 years so I think by 2020 or 2025 you're going to have the teaching profession is going to be become at parody with professions like medicine or law or engineering in terms of how much a teacher can make and how they are valued by society so I predict in this reality teachers based on today's money if you're inflation-adjusted are going to make 100 2,000 to 200,000 per year and for any of those who say wait where's the money for 150,000 to 200,000 dollars per year you just should realize that right now most states even if you just focus on public schools are spending on the order of ten thousand dollars a student they're spending ten thousand dollars per student and even if you had a 25 to 1 student to teacher ratio that means that you have so if you multiply it by 25 students that means you have two hundred fifty thousand two hundred fifty thousand dollars for the teacher and the facilities and any other technology and I'm all I'm arguing for is that the master teachers the ones that are really pushing the envelope here should get a bulk of these resources as opposed to layers of bureaucracy and whatever else now the last prediction I'll make were related to education right over here and it's related to all of this is because because the actual cost of delivering a lot of the core material out of the core practice over here is going to go close to zero because you'll really just need an internet connection and and maybe your peers who are also learning alongside of you and it'll become even better if you have a really amazing experience professional teacher with you but my the the fourth part of it is I believe we're going to get to a 99% global literacy rate and we're already close to this and much of the developed world but in the developing world it's significantly below this and obviously you can imagine if we do get to this type of illiteracy rate what that means for health care what that means for population what that means for economic growth what that means for Wars I think this is a it's a very very very positive thing and coinciding with this idea that students around the world are able to get access to a world-class education that it's like having clean drinking water or electricity I think you start getting closer to a global meritocracy where that student who right now she might just be the daughter of beggars in some part of the developed world but because she has access to this material and she can develop herself and and people will know how she's developing herself because all of the data is being logged we can say wow that she has potential to really be one of the leaders in this creative class she is a potential to to to find the cure for cancer or find a new way of doing X Y or Z and so you really can give these students all over the world all over the world the opportunities that they that they really should have and for hopefully there will be a ton of opportunities because the PI will have gotten so much bigger that we can support a lot of these creative endeavors