Statistics and probability
Sal solves an example about subsets.
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- At4:30, these questions should be reworded as "the subset consists of ONLY outcomes where...". to represent Sal's logic, otherwise this is not grammatically correct. The sample subset DOES contain ALL the outcomes where your friend wins OR there is a tie. It's extremely confusing and it is used in the quiz after the video as well.(35 votes)
- My thoughts are the same as yours. I believe that what Sal explains is not correct. The first 3 statements are actually to tell us to check what's not included in the subset to see whether or not they contain what meets the question. And if it does, then the statement is false - because the subset doesn't contain all stated outcomes. Based on this logic, the correct answer is No. 4 still.(15 votes)
- Question: is there a practice task called "Describing subsets of sample spaces"? I was told to do this by my teacher but I can't find it; I can only find this video. Also, it was recommended for me but does not load. I try to do it and it sends me back to the homepage. Thanks!(10 votes)
- Around4:30, he talks about option one, "The subset consists of all the outcomes where your friend does not win."
To me, that does not require all the outcomes selected to be ones in which your friend does not win, but rather that the subset contains all the possibilities in which your friend does not win. It could include all the possibilities in which your friend does not win, plus some. His reasoning for not selecting that option was that the subset includes an outcome in which your friend does win. This seems faulty to me.
That is how I read that option on a purely grammatical level. Is there some mathy jargon I am missing here?(10 votes)
- also, does it matter in what order you write the different outcomes?(6 votes)
- is there also an equation for these kind of problems without making a chart?(0 votes)
- Well, you CAN write it formally without using a chart, but you would still need to solve the probabilities in your head.
For the Harry Potter example, you would write the first option as P (Holly ∪ Unicorn) - That U in the middle means you're calculating a total probability (it really means "union", as you've probably seen when dealing with inequalities in algebra). That can be solved as P(Holly) + P(Unicorn) - P(Holly and Unicorn happening together). This is where you need to make your chart in your mind: How many times can a Holly wand happen? How many times can a Unicorn wand occur? And lastly, how many times can a Holly wand and a Unicorn wand happen together at the same time? You know a Holly wand can happen 5 times out of 20, so P(Holly) = 5/20. A Unicorn wand can happen 4 times out of 20, so P(Unicorn)= 4/20. And a Holly AND Unicorn wand can only happen one time out of 20, so P(Holly AND Unicorn) = 1/20.
Getting back to our original equation, P(Holly) + P(Unicorn) - P(Holly and Unicorn happening together) = 5/20 + 4/20 - 1/20 = 8/20. And that's the same result you get when considering the chart.
P.S.: You're subtracting the P(Holly and Unicorn) because you're counting that outcome twice, when considering the single probabilities of P(H) and P(U).(16 votes)
- It says: "The wand that selects Harry will be made from of holly or unicorn hair."
Wouldn't this exclude the wand that is both? I mean, shouldn't "holly OR unicorn" mean that it can't be both? (It is either holly or unicorn)(4 votes)
- I am still a little confused. What does subsetes even mean?(3 votes)
- In this case, the word "set" means the set of all possible outcomes. in the case of flipping a coin, the set of possible outcomes is either heads or tails. A subset is a smaller set of outcomes that is contained in that larger set. So if you are rolling a die and what to know the probability of getting an odd number, you are looking at the subset that contains all the outcomes in which the die comes up with an odd number (1, 3, and 5). Hope that helps!(4 votes)
- A quick question:
Where did you get those questions.Please give a link
- I really don't understand in the first example why the or is 8/20 and not 9/20. It said Holly OR Unicorn hair. The chances of picking Holly would be 5/20, and the chances for unicorn hair would be 4/20. If you add those you get 9/20 and not 8/20. So what's the deal? I know he refused to count the Holly and Unicorn twice but I don't get why. It is like you are only counting the Unicorn 3 times then...(1 vote)
- There are 5 wands that use Holly. That's 5/20 wands. Then there are 4 wand's that use Unicorn Hair. However, one of the wands that uses Unicorn Hair also uses Holly. Since there is only one wand with Holly and Unicorn Hair and its already been counted (when we counted the ones with Holly), we can't count it again. Therefore, we have 3/20 wands. Adding that to our 5/20 wands, we get 8/20 = 2/5. You probably already knew that. I just wanted to be sure we were on the same page.
Now, think about if there were only one wand, and it was made with Holly and Unicorn. That's 1/1 wands with Holly and 1/1 wands with Unicorn. 1/1 + 1/1 = 2 wands, but that doesn't mean that there are two wands. We simply have counted one of the wands twice. That is what Sal is doing when he skips that wand the second time around. Makes more sense?(3 votes)
- At5:10, it gets a little confusing. I was wondering why Sal was going over the outcomes of a tie for the last option, and why those were ruled out.(1 vote)
- So, this right over here is a screenshot of the Describing Subsets of Sample Spaces exercise on Khan Academy, and I thought I would do a couple of examples, just because it's good practice just thinking about how do we describe sets and subsets. So it reads, Harry Potter is at Ollivanders Wand Shop. As we all know, the wand must choose the wizard, so Harry cannot make the choice himself. He interprets the wand selection as a random process so he can compare the probabilities of different outcomes. The wood types available are holly, elm, maple, and wenge. The core materials on offer are phoenix feather, unicorn hair, dragon scale, raven feather and thestral tail. All right! Based on the sample space of possible outcomes listed below, what is more likely? And so, we see here, we have four different types of woods for the wand, and then each of those could be combined with five different types of core, Phoenix Feather, Unicorn Hair, Dragon Scale, Raven Feather and Thestral Tail. And so, that gives us four different woods and each of those can be combined with five different cores. 20 possible outcomes. And they don't say it here but they way they're talking I guess we can, I'm going to go with the assumption that they're equally likely outcomes, although it would have been nice if they said that, "These are all equally likely" but these are the 20 outcomes. And so, which of these are more likely? The wand that selects Harry will be made of holly or unicorn hair. So, how many of those outcomes involve this? So if, Holly are these five outcomes and if you said, "Holly or Unicorn Hair" it's going to be these five outcomes plus, well this one involves Unicorn Hair but we've already included this one, but the other ones that's not included for the Holly, that involve Unicorn Hair, are the Elm Unicorn, the Maple Unicorn and the Wenge Unicorn. So it's these five, plus these three, right over here. So eight of these 20 outcomes. And if these are all equally likely outcomes, that means there is an 8/20 probability of a wand that will be made of Holly or Unicorn Hair. So this is 8/20 or, that's the same thing as 4/10 or 40% chance. Now, the wand that selects Harry will be made of Holly and Unicorn Hair. Well, Holly and Unicorn Hair, that's only one out of the 20 outcomes. So this, or course, is going to be a higher probability. It actually includes this outcome and then seven other outcomes. So, the first choice includes the outcome for the second choice plus seven other outcomes. So this is definitely going to be a higher probability. Let's do a couple more of these or at least one more of these. You and a friend are playing "Fire-Water-Sponge". I've never played that game. In this game, each of the two players chooses fire, water or sponge. Both players reveal their choice at the same time and the winner is determined based on the choices. I guess this is like Rock, Paper, Scissors. Fire beats sponge by burning it. Sponge beats water by soaking it up. And water beats fire by putting it out. Alright, well, it kind of makes sense. If both players choose the same object, it is a tie. All the possible outcomes of the game are listed below. If we take outcomes one, three, four, five, seven and eight, as a subset of the sample space, which of the statements below describe the subset? So let's look at the outcomes that they have over here. Well, it makes sense that there are nine possible outcomes because, for each of the three choices I can make there's going to be three choices that my friend can make. So, three times three is nine. They've highlighted these red outcomes. Outcome one, three, four, five, seven and eight. So let's see what's common about them. Outcome one, Fire, I get Fire, friend get's Water. OK, so let's see, my friend would win. Outcome three, I pick Fire, my friend does sponge, so actually I would win that one. And then outcome four, Water, Fire. And then outcome five, Water, Sponge. I don't see a pattern just yet,. Let's see what the choice is. The subset consists of all outcomes where your friend does not win. All outcomes where your friend does not win. Well, that's not true because look, outcome one my friend wins. Water puts out fire so, we're not going to select this first choice. So let's see, the subset consists of all the outcomes where your friend wins or there is a tie. So let's see. Where the friend wins or there's a tie. Well, outcome three, this is an outcome where I would win. Or you, or whoever "Your" is, whoever they're talking about. This is one where the friend doesn't win because Fire burns Sponge so, I'm not going to select that one either. Choice three, the subset consists of all of the outcomes where you win or there is a tie. Well, we just said, "Outcome one, I don't win that, my friend wins that. Water puts out the Fire." Now let's look at the last choice. The subset consists of all the outcomes where there is not a tie. Alright, so this is interesting because look, outcome two there is a tie. Outcome six, there is a tie. Outcome nine, there is a tie. There's actually only three scenarios where there's a tie. Either it's Fire, Fire. Water, Water. Or Sponge, Sponge. And those are the ones that are not selected. So, all of these, someone is going to win. Outcome one, three, four, five, seven or eight. So, definitely, definitely go with that one.