10 year total learning time

- [Voiceover] What I'd like to do is start quantifying our potential impact given this 10 year vision. So we're gonna quantify quantify impact. And there's many different ways of quantifying impact but what I'm going to focus on in this video is the easiest ways for us to quantify impact, things that we can directly measure and we can directly measure on a regular basis. So there's a couple of different things that we can think about and let me think about quantifying it today and then where we could be in 10 years. So let me write the year. And then let's talk about the reach reach and the metric we're going to use for reach is monthly active learners. Actually, lemme just write this as monthly reach. So monthly monthly monthly reach. And we're gonna think about it in terms of active learners so it's not just anyone who has come to the site, but someone who's come to the site and actually did something: watched a video, read an article, did an exercise or wrote a program or some other activity. And this is going to be in the millions. Millions. Now let's just think about let's think about average average time per active learner, or monthly active learner. So monthly average, let me write it this way, average monthly monthly usage per learner. Per learner. And we'll do this in minutes. In minutes. And then we'll have total usage. Total usage. And this is going to be in millions of learning minutes. Millions of learning learning minutes. I think between these we can capture what we can get to if we really execute well on this vision. Lemme draw some columns here. Alright. I'm gonna make, and we're gonna do this for two different years. So first, let's think about this in 2016. And these are gonna be approximate numbers just to give us a sense of things. But our monthly reach right now is pretty respectable. It's about 12 million monthly active learners. 12 million people come every month and take a learning action. And the reason this is a fairly large number, if you think about even in the US, you have about 40 million students and about 2/3 of our usage comes from the US. So we're already reaching a significant portion of all US students. We estimate that that number is in 20-30% of all American students that use Khan Academy at least once a year. Especially if you're thinking about students from late elementary to early college. Now, the average monthly usage per learner, well right now it is 20 minutes. There are for sure many tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people who come and spend a lot more time than 20 minutes, but we have a lot of folks who come in in this, we call it the just in time use case, someone who's worried about passing exam the next day or they're preparing for a standardized test or they're just trying to understand that one thing that the professor talked about that they don't understand or they wanna engage with homework. And so this is roughly where we are. And then our total usage, well, if you multiply these two things, 20 times 12 million, you get 240 million learning minutes. Now let's think about what is possible if we execute well on our vision. So, we're gonna go 10 years in the future to 2026 because at the time that I'm creating this video, which is 2016, this is roughly a 10 year vision, although it could extend beyond that. And let's say that we grow our users and we could think about it a couple of different ways. If we think about just kind of extrapolating out a growth rate, let's say that this grows by a factor of 10. 10x over 10 years, that would be a high 20% growth rate and so that will get us to 120 million learners per month. Now, you can also think about getting to this number from a top down point of view. I just mentioned there's 40 million students in the US, we're not only going to be in the US, and we're actually not only going to be reaching formal students. We're gonna be reaching adults. And we hope that we can be as penetrated in the US, or start to get quite penetrated in other fairly large geographies, whether we talk about India, Brazil, Latin America as a whole, China, so this is a very ambitious number. We're already starting to hit a significant percentage of the students on the planet but it does not seem outlandish given what our long-term vision and our long-term goals actually are. Now, this number would also wanna see this increase 10x. So our average monthly usage per learner would also grow in that high 20% and if you compound these two, if you're talking about total learning minutes, well that's going to be if you grow the usage, if you grow the reach 25% and then if you grow the average usage per person by 25%, well they're gonna compound to be in the high 50 percents and so this is going to grow, this is going to grow 100x. So if we're looking 10 years from now, I would hope that this is 200 minutes on average per learner. Now, obviously there is going to be some that use this more, some that use this less, but this is a pretty meaty number. Remember this is per month, so this would be about 50 minutes per week, on average for each of these people. So this takes us much more in the direction of being a primary resource for a lot of these students. And that is completely consistent with what we talk about in the vision for 10 years. Is that, yeah, sure, there will always be a lot of students who use this just in time for that supplementary help, for that tutor that they couldn't afford, but we want more and more classrooms to be used as a primary resource, more and more students to realize, "Hey, if I really engage with this on a daily basis, "that I can learn whole subjects, "that I can prove what I know to the entire world." And then if we make these goals, well then this is instead of being 240 million, this is going to be 24 billion. 24 billion. Or I could say, 24 thousand million minutes. And this is a fairly, you know, we can throw around numbers like billions and millions, but this is a very very very large number. At this point, if we're successful with our 10 year vision, we will really be reaching many many many students on the planet. And reaching them in a very meaningful way.