Random predictions for 2060 Sal's random predictions for the year 2060
Random predictions for 2060
- In the last video, I've mentioned how I've been asked
- to make predicitons for the year 2060.
- In the last one I've focused on education,
- that's obviously what I'm working on now, and I have some opinions on that.
- But what I want to do in this video is do maybe slightly more broad and wild predictions,
- and my one prediction I'll make is on probably not going to predict the real reality of 2060
- and the probably big things to predict, I will completely miss.
- But with that out of the way, it's fun to predict things, so let's give it a shot.
- So the first area that I will predict is what is going to happen in the field of medicine.
- And in particular I think that the human life span is going to increase dramatically.
- So, I'll be conservative, and say that the average human lifespan
- is going to be, especially in the developed world
- and hopefully by the year 2060 most of the world is developed,
- the average human lifespan is going to be over 100 years old.
- And I won't say whether that's going to be a good or a bad thing.
- There's arguments either way about the proper way to live
- and what happens to global populations.
- But if the world is for the most part developed and educated,
- you actually will probably have a lower rate of reproduction
- and so you might actually have some space in the world for older people.
- But there is a very strong chance of this happening,
- Because we are starting to understand the molecular basis of aging.
- It's not a given thing that because of some form of wear tear
- things have to die after 70 years or 80 years or 90 years.
- And we are starting to understand the mechanisms
- and how to maybe improve the repair mechanisms or how to augment in some way.
- So I definietly think this is going to happen.
- I don't know if it's going to be a positive or a negative,
- but it's likely to happen.
- The next thing, and this is kind of closely related, this is still biological,
- is you are going to have a close integration between
- the digital and the biological.
- And once again, I won't make any statement wheter this is a good or a bad thing,
- but it seem that like it is just an extrapolation
- of the direction we are already going in.
- Digital and biological integration.
- So already you are gettin more and more in your hand-held devices,
- imagine, when your your screen is no longer in your palm,
- but is being projected onto your retina from some little thing.
- And then eventually, you have a direct connection with your retina
- and your brain can directly access areas of memory
- through some biological and digital interface.
- So I definitely think this is going to happen. This is a big deal,
- and I think this is already happening with a lot what you see around technology,
- it is really going to reshape what the individual human experience is going to be,
- we already see people kind of living in virtual realities and playing these immersive games
- and spending all of their time on social networking platforms.
- What happens when they are literally plugged in all the time,
- when almost their cell phone is in the brain, I don't know,
- I am not going to comment whether it is a good or a bad thing,
- but it does look like a trend that is going to keep on going through the next 50 years.
- Now, if you take that even further, we are talking about digital and biological integration,
- but if you go to the extreme, and actually it is probably both of these top two things combined in some way,
- is that we are learning, and once again, not making comment whether it is good or bad,
- it is just an extrapolation of what we already see,
- we are seeing more and more ability to understand our genome,
- to molecularly target things, to manipulate actual biology.
- And so, what you have is that you can actually have manipulation of biology.
- And while this is on some level creepy, it could be creepy or it could be exciting,
- depending on how it all plays out, but it could do things like
- augment human intelligence.
- Which would, if you think about all of the progress of society
- and all of the things that are already accelerating,
- imagine how society will change if intelligence itself is augmented.
- As someone with a limited intelligence I can't even imagine what will happen as soon as you do this.
- And obviously, the more you augmented intelligence, the more that you can learn
- how to augment intelligence and increase lifespan
- and do digital and biological integration even more.
- So these things I see as some form of a trend.
- We will se how it all plays out. And hopefully it plays out in
- the field good carebear version versus the kind of some type of crazy society
- and we all turn into the borg in some way.
- Now the other trend, and these are just the things that popped in my brain today when I pressed record,
- but the other tred that I think is interesting is some of the things
- that we have taken for granted in terms of how nations interact with each other,
- and nation-states in particular interact with each other.
- And just a kind of a overview, so there is a notion called a nation-state,
- in everyday language the word nation and the word state
- almost mean the same thing, but they kind of mean different things.
- If you want to be more formal about it, that's why people use the word nation-state,
- that doen't mean the same thing like saying a state-state,
- the difference between a nation and a state is
- these are group of people that feel some type of common identity.
- It could be a language, it could be a culture, it could be a value system.
- So this is some kind of common identity.
- And it often is somehow associated with geography,
- but it does not have to be associated with geography,
- it could even be a religion or it could be whatever else. That's what a nation is.
- A state is a formal governence structure
- that makes the laws and has the institutions to make society function.
- Now, a nation-state is what most of us live in today,
- because it both has an indentity and some type of formal institutions.
- So a very pure nation-state would be some place like Japan
- where there is relatively uniform in term of ethnicity and religion and in terms of culture,
- and you have that same group of people governing themselves.
- In a place like the Unites States, ethnicity, religion, that is diverse,
- but what gives indentity is a notion of shared values, and a notion of maybe a common history
- or whatever else for a certain kind of world view
- and obiously there is a formal state sructure.
- Now, what is going to be interesting here, I actually have no idea
- how all of this is going to play out,
- but when you things like the some of the revolitions in the Middle East
- to do the things like peolple being able to communicate irrespective of the traditional media,
- I think there is going to be some interesting questions on what happens to the nation-state.
- Especially nation-states that are able to secure their power
- by kind of having a bullneck on access to information.
- And all of that is I think going to change in a very dramatic way,
- as you have more and more integration between people, cross-border comminication
- when people realize that people on the other side of the borded
- really aren't that different than themselves.
- And another interesting thing, even the notion of democracy,
- and once again, I don't know how it is going to play out,
- but all notions of representational democracy that we have today
- are somewhat based on geography.
- And that is because when the major representational democracies came about,
- that was the best way to represent each other:
- hey, let me pick some representatives from our county or from our region
- and they will go elect other representatives and they will go to the national government,
- but now that we have this instantaneous communication with people,
- you might be able to have different types of a representational democracy,
- and maybe you can even have more direct democracy,
- who knows, because of things like communication and technology and whatever else.
- And then the other way that the nation, the way they fundamentally interact
- is going to change is actually in things like warfare,
- and once again, already seeing this trend,
- in particular, I think developed countries are not going to have humans on the front line.
- No humans on the front line.
- And depending on you point of view, this could be a very good thing
- or could be a kind of a scary thing.
- Because if you have no humans on the front line,
- and you are already seeing things like this with these Predator Drones
- and you see these robot bomb detectors and all things like that,
- and it doesn't really have to be these big things,
- there is already a DARPA-founded project to work on military insects
- that could be used as some kind of reconnaissance
- or you can imagine that eventually they could have these little things on
- to conduct on someone other, who know what they do.
- The exciting thing is that all of a sudden a human won't be there to get shot
- and so hopefully military casualties would go down,
- the scary thing here is if you don't have humans on the front line,
- nations might be willing to enter into war, especially developed nations,
- they might not take it this serioiusly,
- and so it might be something that they do a little bit more when they are in the mood,
- and it would actually create a huge disparity between
- developed and developing nations when this happends.
- You already see that to a certain degree.
- A developed nation, they don't have to put as many humans in harm's way,
- and it is purely driven by their wealth to have capital
- that can go into these robots and these drones, and their technological innovations,
- while in the developing countries they actually would have to
- use human beings so their cause would be much much higher.
- So it is an interesting question, and once again,
- who knows how this plays out, whether it is a good or bad thing in the long term.
- I think a similar thing with this is we are going to see
- more and more non-lethal weapons,
- which, once again, it is very similar to this,
- it sounds like it is a good thing, you know,
- if there is a gun that instead of having to kill someone,
- it encompasses them in some way, stuns them in some,
- kind of the classic Star Trek 'put your phasers on stun' things.
- The, I guess, scarier version of non-lethal weapons is
- the treshold for using it becomes much lower.
- So for government, you know, once to subjected citizens
- are subjected to another group of citizens,
- it can literally just stun them, make them pass out or control them in some way,
- so this could be a little bit scarier.
- So who knows how all of this plays out.
- So those are my predictions or things to think about over the next 50 years.
- These are just the things happened to jump into my brain today,
- probably basen on some of the science-fiction books I have been reading or whatever else,
- but take in what the huge grade of sold,
- I don't know whether these things are really going to happen or not,
- and I don't know if they are even a good thing or not,
- but they seem to be a bit of an extrapolation of what we have already seen.
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At 5:31, how is the moon large enough to block the sun? Isn't the sun way larger?
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When naming a variable, it is okay to use most letters, but some are reserved, like 'e', which represents the value 2.7831...
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This is great, I finally understand quadratic functions!
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At 2:33, Sal said "single bonds" but meant "covalent bonds."
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