If you're seeing this message, it means we're having trouble loading external resources on our website.

If you're behind a web filter, please make sure that the domains *.kastatic.org and *.kasandbox.org are unblocked.

Main content
Current time:0:00Total duration:2:45

Video transcript

hey so hello Britt I have a challenge for you because I heard you have some kind of predictive powers you're a bit of a magician there might be some truth to that limited truth I want to I want to test it out what I did is I filled this black bucket with a certain number um white and black beads and I know what you're going to say I'm going to prove to you that I have both white and black okay here's the white white no tricky business here I'm a bit of a map in the magician myself Mathemagician math magician and here's a dark dark so so they both exist now I'm wondering you you could touch it you can do whatever you want you can't look inside of it you can you can touch it scratch it yeah whatever you want to do tickle it is there more white or black and that's that's my first question could you just guess if there's more or less and could you I refuse to guess you won't even play cuz I don't know you just showed me too much I know there's at least one white and at least one black but I don't want to show you what's in here so what so can I can I can I can I take some out can I can I do it um how about I do it because I don't try I think you might know the marbles or you might be looking in the Bing when you pick it out okay I want I want it to be randomly selected black so I do it again oh you can do it again but we're going to put the bead back okay oh that's fair okay my eyes are closed white this is fascinating so in ten tries I got five black and I got five whites so once again I I wouldn't bet my my my life savings on this because once again this might have been just the way I happen to pick it but if I had to guess I would say that you have an equal number of white and black so that's your guess and yes you know if you let me well I would say 1 to 1 for every white there's a black I would guess whatever it half of those were white half of those were black now I could very well be wrong ok show it show it show it show it show us what's going on I got you there we have 2 & 4 Oh so the correct one is we Wow I was I had I had two whites for every black the ratio was two to one so at the beginning you were actually very close I was spot-on I'm kidding and that's why I think the more trials perhaps less likely that you're going to get it correct which why I don't even know why you of that I disagree with that I think that the more trials it just happened to that it kind of took me off the the right path this time but I think if I did that more times than not it would get me closer to the right answer