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Can Sal predict the ratio of white to black balls without looking at all of them? Created by Brit Cruise.
Video transcript
BRIT: Hey Sal! SAL: Hello Brit. B: I have a challenge for you, 'cause I heard you have some kind of predictive powers. You're a bit of a magician. S: There might be some truth to that. Limited truth. [laughs] B: Well I want to test it out. What I did is fill this black bucket with a certain number of white and black beads. And I know what you're going to say. I'm going to prove to you that I have both white and black. So here's the white. S: White. B: No tricky business here. I'm a bit of a math magician myself. S: Hmm. Math magacian. B: Yeah. So they both exist. Now you can touch it, you can do whatever you want. You can't look inside of it. You can touch it. S: I can scratch it. Tickle it. B: Yeah. Whatever you want to do. Is there more white or black? That's my first question. Can you just guess if there's more or less? And could you tell me--- S: I refuse to guess. B: You won't even play? S: 'Cause, I don't know. I know there's at least one white. And at least one black. B: But I don't want to show you what's in here. S: So can I take some out? B: Can I do it? S: about I do it? 'Cause I think you might know the marbles or you might be looking in the thing when you pick it out. 'Cause I want it to be randomly selected. Black. So, can I do it again? B: Oh, you can do it again. But we're going to put the bead back in. S:Okay. That's fair. Okay, my eyes are closed. White. This is fascinating. So in ten tries, I got five black and I got five whites. So, once again, I wouldn't bet my life's savings on this because, once again, this may just be the way I happened to pick it. But, if I had to guess, I would say that you have and equal number of white and black. B: So that's your guess and your ratio? S: Well I would say one to one. For every white, there's a black. I would guess half of those are white and half of those are black. Now, I could very well be wrong. Okay, show it. Show us what's going on. B: I got you there. We have 2 and 4. S: Oh! So the correct one is.... Wow. I had two whites for every black. The ratio is two to one. B: So at the beginning, you were actually very close. S: I was spot on at the beginning. B: And that's why I think the more trials, perhaps less likely that you're going to get it correct. S: I disagree with that! I think that the more trials-- it just happened that it kind of took me off the right path this time, but I think that if I did that more times than not, it would get me closer to the right answer.