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AP Stats: DAT‑1.H (LO), DAT‑1.H.1 (EK)

- [Instructor] Nkechi took a random sample of 10 countries to study fertility rate. And life expectancy. She noticed a strong
negative linear relationship between those variables
in the sample data. Here is computer output from a least-squares regression analysis for using fertility rate to predict life expectancy. Use this model to predict the
life expectancy of a country whose fertility rate is
two babies per woman. And you can round your answer to the nearest whole number of years. So pause this number and see if you can do it, you might need to use a calculator. All right now let's do this together. So in general, this computer output is actually
giving us a lot of data, more than we need actually,
to do this prediction. But it's giving us the data we need to know the equation
for a regression line. So the general form of a regression line, a linear regression line would be, our estimate, and that little hat means
we're estimating our y value, would be equal to our y-intercept plus our slope, times our x value. Now in this situation, we're using fertility to
predict life expectancy. Or let me circle all of life expectancy. So the thing that we're trying to predict, that is y, life expectancy. And fertility, is the thing that we're using to predict that. So that is going to be
our x, right over there. Now what are a and b? Well, our computer output gives us that. It's these numbers right over here. Our constant coefficient
right over here, this is a. And our slope, is going
to be negative 5.97. You could view it as the
coefficient on fertility. Remember, this right
over here, is fertility. You could even write, rewrite this as our estimated life expectancy, estimated life expectancy. I could put a little hat on it to show this is estimated life expectancy, is going to be equal to 89.70 minus 5.97 times fertility, times fertility rate. I'll just call it, say fert. And period, right over there. Notice, this is the
coefficient on fertility, and then this is the constant coefficient. We could do that right over there. And now, we can use this to
estimate the life expectancy of a country whose fertility
rate is two babies per woman. For fertility, you just put a two here. And then you get your
estimated life expectancy. So what's that going to be? We can get out a calculator. So we can say, 5.97 times two is equal to that and then we wanna subtract that from, so put in a negative there, and add that to 89.7 is equal to, and we wanna round to the
nearest whole number of years, so that's approximately 78 years. So this is approximately 78 years. And we're done. And just to be clear
what even happened here, is that Nkechi, she did a regression, on the x-axis with fertility, fertility, on the y-axis is let's call it l period dot e period. That's our y-axis. Took 10 data points, one, two, three, four, five,
six, seven, eight, nine, 10. Put a regression line on, try to fit try to fit a regression line. Saw a negative linear relationship, and then using this
regression line to estimate, hey, if fertility is, let's say this is two right over here, what is the estimated life expectancy? And we just saw that that
would be roughly 78 years.

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