Finance and capital markets
- The housing price conundrum
- Housing price conundrum (part 2)
- Housing price conundrum (part 3)
- Housing conundrum (part 4)
- Mortgage-backed securities I
- Mortgage-backed securities II
- Mortgage-backed securities III
- Collateralized debt obligation (CDO)
- Credit default swaps
- Credit default swaps 2
- Wealth destruction 1
- Wealth destruction 2
How bubbles destroy wealth. Created by Sal Khan.
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- At9:30, when Sal states that consumption in items such as Granite Counters or Bathroom additions is not making the world more productive or not "increasing the world economic pie" is false. Yes, there is a difference between buying finished goods versus "investing in a factory". But what about the company that produces the counter tops and the factory that supports THAT company? Perhaps they expand due to increased demand. Or the delivery company that buys more trucks due to demand.(8 votes)
- But this is fake productivity. If the imagined wealth that they had and were able to take out the home mortgage loan on, due to the one person who overpaid for the house on their block didnt exist, they wouldnt have purchased these items and "improvements". Their home valuation wouldnt have become drastically out of whack and they wouldnt have assumed this new massive equity. Therefore it is temporarily propping up and funding inefficient sectors (such as the granite counter makers) that would not have received the money under normal economic conditions and without the financial systems monetary expansion. This argument is typical for keynesian economics but it is incorrect in assuming that any economic action is a positive action on society. This is wasteful consumerism prolonged by an unsustainable economic system that we obviously saw was going to crumble soon.(12 votes)
- what is equity(6 votes)
- How it is possible to have negative amortization?(3 votes)
- its basically an increase in the principal balance of a loan. but its caused from making a payment worth less than the payment thats due. Then the remaining amount of interest that has not been payed is added to the loan's principal, which causes the borrower to owe more money because they have technically borrowed the difference in interest as well as the loan.
for example, if the interest payment on a loan is $1000 and a $800 payment may be agreed, but then $200 is added to the principal balance of the loan.(5 votes)
- at03:40Sal says that the home owner is left with $940K. But isn't it $900K ??? He gets $1000K, pays off $80K, leaves $20K of equity in house for the buyer and gets left with $900K. That's common sense to me unless i'm mistaken somewhere, am i?(3 votes)
- At3:41, Sal seems make a mistake. Isn't the man's equity $920K? Why would Sal add the previous equity($20K) to $920K?(4 votes)
- Sal, if the bank feels lending the money is a good deal, because even if the borrower defaults, the bank would then get the borrower's house, which it thinks is worth much more than the money they are lending to the borrower. However, why then would the bank "auction off" the houses at a MUCH lower price??? Why not sell it off at the price they imagined, why did the value of the house suddenly fall?(4 votes)
- Sydney, the house doesn't necessarily sell for the amount that the bank could get for a few different reasons. Breeze was able to highlight the major ones.
The problem with waiting for a buyer at a "more reasonable" price, compared to the comparable houses in the same neighborhood is that the bank is sitting on a depreciating investment. Every day that it is on the market under foreclosure, the bank now has to pay for electricity, taxes, sewer & water, you name it.
If, on the other hand, they can get the owner to sell it or put it up for short sale, the bank will still get the money they are owed, plus interest (granted, it might be less than they were planning on getting, but getting some of your investment back is better than nothing, and they typically come out well ahead at the end of the day).(1 vote)
- What is the inflation cost for in between the 10-20 year time?(2 votes)
- From the New Years day 1995 to New Years Eve 2005, the inflation rate totaled 27.96%. http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx(4 votes)
- When the housing bubble was at its peak and credit was the cheapest, why did the foreclosed house sell for only $300K?
What made the the buyers suddenly realize the house is worth only $300K(2 votes)
- Isn't there a huge housing bubble in China right now?(2 votes)
- Also most people in China pay majority of their houses/appartments with savings rather than loan, or with shaddow banking loans which can also be made up by other peoples savings. So if there is a bubble and it bursts, many ordinary people will loose what they saved, but it would not hit the financial sector (since it is not so large in China as in West).(2 votes)
- In 2005, the owner of the house since 1995 decided to sell the house for $1M, which gave him $940k Equity ($920k + $20k). Why, all of a sudden, in 2006 the house was sold for only $300k resulting from Auctions ? Why didn't the bank decide to keep the price of the house remain at $1M and then mortgaged it to anyone who would be willing to pay the rent ? I suppose it would stabilize the housing market and trigger no panic among the population.(2 votes)
- Banks don't want to hold illiquid assets like houses. They want their cash. They don't want to be landlords.(2 votes)
Let's do an example of how a housing bubble can lead to wealth destruction. And I really just want to hit the point home that once wealth is destroyed, all legislation can do is redistribute who takes the losses. That you can't create wealth, all of a sudden, out of legislation. You can maybe create incentives for investment et cetera, et cetera, but we'll talk about that in a future video. So let's say, in year one, I have a neighborhood and Toll Brothers goes out and builds a new development and they build five houses. Let me draw those five houses. House one, house two, house three, house four, and house five. And let's say, that this was a normal home buying environment. This could have been 1995. Let's just say, for the sake of argument, this is 1995. Although, I want this to be an abstract example, so we could call that year one. But in 1995, these people find five new families that go buy the house. They pay $100,000 each, for the houses. These were conforming loans, there wasn't this whole CDO and mortgage-backed security market. So essentially, these people have to put 20% down, and they had good credit scores, and all the rest. So immediately, they have $20,000 equity and an $80,000 loan. It's my code, E for equity. Now, we have this whole securitization, lending becomes a lot easier, becomes easier and easier every year because housing prices go up, so people stop taking risk into consideration. And let's say, we get to the year 2005. This could be an abstract example, it could be year two. In 2005, all of a sudden everyone is getting access to funding. The people who have houses actually don't want to sell the houses because they're convinced that their housing prices are going up so fast, that it's only a matter of time before they're millionaires just with the housing wealth, and then they could maybe retire off of it. But there's so much funding and anyone can get a loan. And let's say, that these first homeowners, maybe they have to move, or maybe they just want to move to a cheaper location, or maybe their kids have gone to college, so they just want to downsize. They decide to sell their house. And because there's so much demand out there, anyone can get a loan, frankly, the person who's going to be able to give the highest bid on the house, is a person, to some degree, who's most reckless or most prudent. And anyway, I won't go into that. But let's say, they pay $1 million for the house. They have no money down, $1 million loan, subprime, negative amortization, they had no credit rating, et cetera, et cetera. They pay $1 million. Now, that was the purchase price of the house. And we could just say, that they have zero equity. And of course, this guy's great now. He probably did build equity over that ten years from 1995 to 2005, but even if he didn't, even if all he did was pay the interest on this $80,000 loan. This guy, he had $20,000, now he gets $1,000,000, pays off the $80,000, so he essentially, gets $920,000 plus the $20,000 had before. So he moves to Costa Rica with $940,000 and lives like a king. Although, I've heard Costa Rica has also become expensive. But anyway, what happens now in the neighborhood? These people didn't sell their houses. They didn't find some subprime individual that was willing to bid up the house. Nothing happened, no money changes hands, but all of a sudden, these people say, well you know what, our houses are just as nice as this first house that sold. Maybe it's even better. So our houses are also worth $1 million. So we all have this kind of you could say, paper wealth here of $1 million. Just from one transaction. And actually, this is a five house neighborhood, this could happen in a 500 house neighborhood. You just to find one person to overpay for a house and then everyone in the neighborhood, all of a sudden, feels at their house is worth that much. And just out of thin air, just by one person getting cheap credit and overpaying for something, everyone in the neighborhood thinks that they just got $900,000 of wealth, or at least in this example. You never see a nine-fold increase in property prices but it wasn't crazy to see a two-fold increase in a year. Well, we have seen nine-fold increases over ten years, it's the example here, it's actually not that crazy. Anyway, that's all of their notional wealth. But all these people don't want to sell. One, they like their house, their kids are still there. And they say, wow, in ten years my house went from $100,000 to $1 million and in another ten years, my house is going to go from $1 million to $10 million. Why would I sell it; I can then retire off the house. They don't think, who could buy a $10 million house in ten years. The only people who could-- well anyway, I'll do another video on that, I just don't want to run out of time. But they can still monetize this. They could say, well when I go to my financial planner, they said, oh, it's so inefficient for you to have all of that equity sitting in your house. How much equity do they have? They had $20,000 before and even if they didn't build any equity while they paid their mortgage, they now have another $900,000 of equity. So these people, their financial planner, and their siblings, and their friends at work say, oh, your balance sheet is so inefficient, why don't you take some of that equity and invest it or put it to work. So they say, that's a good idea. I'll go get a home equity loan. So let's say, this person goes to a bank. A bank says, OK, sure, I'll give you a $500,000 home equity loan, and in exchange, get 8% interest on that loan. So this is the bank. And the bank thinks it got a great deal. Because this $500,000 loan is not an unsecured loan. It's not as if this person can't pay, they just file bankruptcy and there's nothing that the bank can get ahold of. This home equity loan is secured by the house. So the bank says, well if this person doesn't pay that $500,000 loan, if they default, for whatever reason, I get their house. And their house is worth $1 million. And why do I think it's $1 million? Because a house in the neighborhood sold for $1 million and frankly, that's how, unfortunately, housing was assessed. People would just say, oh, another house in this neighborhood sold for $1 million, this one must be worth $1 million because it's a very similar or maybe even a better house. So this banker thinks they have a great deal. This is better than buying treasuries. I'm getting 8%, maybe treasuries are giving me 3% or 4%. And if they default on it, I actually get an asset that's probably worth more than the loan amount, and I can auction that off and easily get my $500,000 back. So the risk managers within the bank think they have a great deal. And they probably sliced and diced these things and sold it to other people and got it rated as triple-A and all of that. But what happens next? Well let's say, 2005, in our imaginary universe was the peak of the credit cycle. That was the year that credit was the loosest. And as soon as some of these people who had no jobs and got these $1 million loans, they probably couldn't even pay the mortgage on their loan, not to speak of continuing it, or even pay the low rate on the original teaser loan. So maybe, they start to default, credit starts getting tighter, and let's say, this guy actually gets foreclosed. And so he gives the house back to the bank. The bank auctions it off and let's say, when the bank auctions it off, it only gets $300,000 for the house. And in the meantime, what did all of these people do with the $500,000 that they had? Well their intention was to take these home equity loans and put that money to work, invest it in some way. And they say, well what's a better investment than doing home improvements? Because we all know a house is the best investment. So unfortunately, a lot of that $500,000 it gets quote-unquote invested in granite countertops, two more bathrooms per house, hardwood floors, and you can imagine. They wanted to treat themselves too, so they did a little vacation. So it was invested quote-unquote in their house. Because they said, oh well, this will increase the value of my house. And oh, as a side benefit, I will really look good, relative to the neighbors and live it up. I can live beyond, essentially, what my income would predict. And I've done some videos on investment versus consumption, but I'd argue that this wasn't real investment, that $500,000. That this was consumption because it's not making the world more productive in any way; it's not increasing the total economic pie for the world, so it's not investment. It may be an investment if it somehow makes your asset more emotionally appealing to some greater fool to pay more for it. You didn't build a factory or you didn't invent some new technology that will make all of us richer, you just poured some money into something that's going to make your lifestyle a little bit better, and maybe the next person who buys your house. But anyway, this house got foreclosed upon. It gets auctioned off for $300,000, maybe this is the year 2006. Now, all of a sudden, all of these people, probably all of whom who took these home equity loans, let's say all of them did it. They all say, gee, I'm paying a $500,000 loan. Actually, I'm paying $500,000 plus my original $80,000 loan, so, I have $580,000 of debt on an asset that just sold for $300,000. So what do you think they're going to do? And I just realized I'm out of time, so I will continue this in the next video.