Year 2060: Education Predictions Sal is asked to make some predictions for the year 2060
Year 2060: Education Predictions
- I've been asked to make predictions in the next 50 years
- to the things I feel close to my heart and hopefully things like Khan Academy might be able to be bring about.
- so the first big change I expect in the next 50 years and I actually do not think it will take 50 years for to happen.
- It will be probably happen fairly quickly over the next 10 years is that the classroom model fundamentally changes
- The classroom different.
- And this going changes from model like this, not all classes look like this.
- There are already classrooms that are exploring different types of ways for students for interacring with each other and with professor
- but still, in most classrooms of the world, especially if you take intoductory courses in most universities you'll see something like this, you'll see a professor lecturing in some way
- and a bounch of students sitting in rows taking notes or taking exams at the end of the term.
- In probably frankly 10 years this is going to go away, completely go away.
- You won't have people passively sitting in lecture halls taking notes.
- So they are going to move from a passive model, taking lecture completely .
- This is already happening to active I 'll call it discovery and creative model.
- The classroom will look something like this. You won't call it classroom. You would call it a room , some type of project room or something like that.
- The general idea right now all of these resourses are spent
- for people who are passively getingt information from a professor. When does this necessary there'll be time for you to learn
- a little bit someone else discovered about calculus , quat physics and something like that
- It'll be all time we'll spend doing this - building things, creating things, exploring things.
- It doesn' t just have to be Science and Technology for these people building some type of a robot.
- It could be painting a picture or composing a sonata or choreagraphing a dance.
- gonna be much more active, discovery based and creative.
- And actually why I think this is gonna happen technologically because it's gonna be
- because lots of that stuff that can start happening in this model might arrive over here can start to happen a little bit more efficiently.
- For this model three hours time is gonna be socia l imperative when it happens.
- If you really rewind a few hundred years you really want to rewind that far the bulk of society was kind of involved in -I call it - physical labour.
- It had a small of fraction that was involved in mental labour. Sometimes white collar jobs.
- feeling like ... So we have very small percent of society this kind of
- spending time innovation, creativity art things like that.
- So art, innovation, true science, true pushing , the frontiers of human experance, of human understanding forward.
- Now as we get more and more technology. technology of industial revolution started to a lot of this. And it also commit the pie bigger.
- So when you have kind of industrial society . What happened if necessary for physical labour went down
- so you had a smaller percent of population that do physical labour
- The mental labour actually grew. Some more people can now be involed in things like mental labour.
- And I will see that some nations are handling some of them as well.
- You've definitly freed up a good more resources than people.
- They can out do the frontier, pushing the envelope, the art, the innovation, the creativity.
- Now if we at first 2060 I think this is gonna be a kind of extreme form.
- There is almost no physical labour. Quiet people might like to do it for exercise.
- So this part right over here is going to be very small , especially in developed countries
- Hopefully by 2060 most countries will be developed.
- Even the mental labour is gonna be taken over more and more by ... . So a lot of this is gonna be ...
- It is gonna need less people doing traditional mental labour tasks filling out paper work, filling out your taxis and things like that.
- It is goona be a lot of resources, a lot of people hours to do truly artful, creative and innovative things.
- So the bulk of society I think by 2060 their things will go well, will be over here, will in this kind of creative class.
- This is where most people will sit.
- It's actually ... their classroom. Oneof the too lis happening to make it possible, to make it visible -
- imperative that society really is moving in this direction, I think it is.
- We'll have as many people as possible that can do this researching development, that can do truly creative activity.
- Now corelaly to this idea that classroom will be different, that people will be working self-paced, spending lot more time working on projects.
- Is that instead of credentials being for the most part seat time based Right now our credentials a hundred percent see time to large degree most people you spend 12 or actually 13 years
- from K to 12, so that's 13 years, and if you get a college degree it's expected it will be another 4 years
- And there are some people who are able to skip this, keep a grade here there, but for the most part, the bulk of people do 13
- years and then 4 years
- and what the variable is how well you actually achieved, how well you actually
- understood the meterial, so the variable, so this thing is relatively fixed
- and the variable is your level of achievement.
- And this right over here is variable. So some people go through the system with straight A's,
- they've really understood everything, and hopefully they've understood everything if they got straight A's...
- Some people have B's, some people get C's, and that's why we have
- something called the Grade Point Avarage shows the variations of achievement
- and even know everyone is kind of in this seat-time.
- What the transition to especially wants everyone is learning at their own pace
- they don't have to kind of move together, in this classrooms
- you're going to go an achievement-based
- it's going to be an achievement-based model,
- where the achievements, that you are trying to get to, they can be multiplied things,
- part of the achievement could be skills, like maybe calculus.
- Or being able to read music.
- Or being able to, I don't know, understand quantum phisics.
- This would all be achievements but you decide how you will learn to master these concepts.
- So what will be based is on you have to spend 13 years and then 4 years going into depth to do it.
- You could go to formal institution to learn some other stuff or you can learn however you see fit, you might be able to be acquaintance with someone
- and then eventually show that you know quantum phisics very well.
- And I can imagine these achievements will be fur more regress than
- the assessements that are being given right now
- they can be an oral examinations, they can be practical examinations
- they can be contingent upon your building or applying some of these information
- What's intersting about this, is that now the seat-time
- the time is variable. You can do this whenever, wherever, however long it takes,
- you can even revisit things,when you're 40 or 50, there won't be any artificial stopping point,
- that your're 22, you're college grad now you're not learning new things anymore...
- What's fixed, and I would call it fixed because you can always get more and more achievements,
- but the achievement would be on the high standard, it's a fixed hight standard.
- So if you get this, reading music achievement, you really do know how to read music,
- which is differnt than some of the achievement if I get C in a calculus classes,
- not clear, but I actually do understand calculus.
- So fixed high standards.
- And I imagine that the only credentials won't just be these kind of subject based credentials.
- The most important part, because, remember, the emphasis here is
- on the creative, on projects. And the creative feels your real transcript is not
- your GPA. Your real transcript is your portfolio of projects,
- portfolio of the work you have done.
- So people would get things like this to show they understand specific domaines.
- But the most important part of the transcript of the future
- will be people's achievements, or I just said the projects.
- So you maybe I made a robot that can make a tost? Maybe I've painted a picture? Maybe I've written a piece of software that does something interesting?
- So what employers and other people really care about
- isn't just your GPA or how much time you spent on a lecture hall.
- They say: "Show me the stuff that you have actually built, that shows that you're really in that creative classes."
- And I also imagine, because we're be getting so much data,
- why people are actually working on getting some of their skills,
- that you won't just even have this, do you know calculos, do you know quantum phisics.
- You would also have metrics you hard-working were you, were well did you progress, especially maybe when you failed first.
- These would be, I think, consider to be good things.
- And on top of that, you can start to mesure how well did you help others.
- So that can be another achievement - helping others.
- When you virtually tutor people of phiscially tutor people.
- Thay say: "Wow, that person really did help me".
- You can even look to a data to see statistically significant impact on their results.
- Now, the next quarrel, besides this different classroom and achievement-based learning.
- is I think the role of the teacher will change dramatically.
- And I think it will be in the very powerful way.
- So the role of the teacher, rather then beaing a lecturer and often giving a similar lectures from year to year,
- and always going the same pace,
- the teacher will now be a coach or a mentor.
- And anyone who has ever seen a great footballer, basketball coach will tell you
- that the great coach or a mentor is a very rich and important role.
- So I think the role of the teacher will go up dramatically.
- And it actually won't even be an insolated profession anymore.
- Right now, in a traditional classroom, because is lecture - based,
- you have a classroom of 20, 25, 30 students. Another classroom of 20, 25, 30 students. Another classroom of 20, 25, 30 students.
- And in each of them you have a teacher.
- Because every student is now working in their own pace and thier own time
- and the teacher is now spending the most of the time interracting with students.
- I can imagine a world where why have these walls between calssrooms when just have one large classroom
- It's 70, 75, 90 students and are 3 teachers
- all 3 teachers work together.
- And the students will have the benefit, instead of having the benefit of 1
- experienced - based and knowledge set; the students have the experience base of all these teachers.
- And not only that. They will be also tutoring each other.
- So in this model and this model - it's all going from the teacher to student.
- Here's going from the teachers to multiplied students and from students to studens
- and maybe even from students to teachers.
- So it's going from peer to peer, and multiplied teachers to multiplied students.
- And I think in this tipe of a model, because the teachers are going to become that more valuable.
- Because now it is all interactive, there is no more passive lecture, there is no giving the same lecture every year.
- I think the profession of teaching will become even more prestigious.
- So I'm saying 2060, but I think this is going to happen over the next 10 - 15 years.
- By 2020 or 2025 the teaching profession is going to become as parody with professions
- like medice or law or engineering.
- How the teacher can make and how they are valued by the society.
- So I predict in this reality, teachers based on today's money
- if your inflation just to make 150 000 - 200 000 per year.
- And for any of those say "Hey, where's the money for 150 000 to 200 000 $ per year?"
- you just should realize that right now
- if you focus on public schools, the most money is spending on
- the other 10 000 $ per student. And if you have 25 student and 1 teacher
- that means that you have, so if you multiply by 25 students, that means that you have
- 250 000 $ for the teacher and the facilites and the other technology.
- And all I am arguing for is that the master teachers, the ones that are really pushing the envelope here,
- should get a bulk of these resources, as oppose to layers of bureaucracy and whatever else.
- Now the last prediction I will make will relate to education, is related to all of this because
- the actual cost od delievering a lot the material
- is going to go close to 0 because you really need just an Internet connection
- and maybe your peers will also become even better if you have a really amazing experienced professional teachers with you
- but the 4th part of it is I belive we're going to get 99% of global literacy rate.
- And we're close to this and much of the developped world but
- in the developping world is significantly below this
- and obviously you can imagine if we do get to this type of literacy rate, what that means for health care?
- what that means for population? what that means for econimic grow? what that means for world?
- I think it's very, very positive thing.
- And cooinsting with this idea that sutdents around the world are able to get
- access to world - class education that is like having clean drinking water or electricity,
- I think you start getting closer to global meritrocracy.
- Where that student who right now she might be the daughter
- of Begarts of some part of the developped world
- but because she has access to this material and she can develop herself
- and people will know how she's devolopping herself because all the data is being loged
- we can say: "wow, she has the potencial to really be one of the leaders in this creative class. She has potencial to find a cure for cancer, or find a new way of doing XYZ"
- And so you really can give the students all over the world
- the opportunites they really should have.
- And hopefully there will be tone of opportunities
- because the pie will have got so much bigger that we can support a lot of this creative
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At 5:31, how is the moon large enough to block the sun? Isn't the sun way larger?
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When naming a variable, it is okay to use most letters, but some are reserved, like 'e', which represents the value 2.7831...
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This is great, I finally understand quadratic functions!
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At 2:33, Sal said "single bonds" but meant "covalent bonds."
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